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What’s always coming but never arrives?
If you said renewables, you’re wrong—or at least you soon will be.
The answer is tomorrow
It’s axiomatic that as economies grow, energy demand increases at a similar rate. But renewables may finally break the connection.
Slow burn
In this edition:
The decoupling of GDP and energy growth:
A CEO guide
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
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The decoupling of GDP and energy growth:
A CEO guide
Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Report – Our World in Data
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A quick briefing in five—
or a fifty-minute deeper dive
The replacements
But fossil fuels will play a lesser role as renewables supply a greater share of what industry needs.
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Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels
Report – Our World in Data
Global Energy Perspective 2019
Global Energy Perspective 2019
Report
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The decoupling of GDP and energy growth: A CEO guide
The decoupling of GDP and energy growth: A CEO guide
Industrial fuel
That’s a big deal for the industrial economy, which has long depended on burning things—particularly coal, crude oil, and natural gas.
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Decoupled
Other factors also help unhitch the rate at which the economy and energy demand grow.
The transition
The coming energy shift will affect a wide range of companies, the roles they play, and the products they offer. Are you prepared?
Global Energy Perspective 2019
Global Energy Perspective 2019
Report
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Tipping point: Year when new-build solar or wind capacity is cost-competitive with existing fossil-fuel plants
Existing coal
Existing gas
Existing coal
Existing gas
Wind onshore
Solar photovoltaic
US: California
Germany
Spain
China: North
India
Vietnam
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Global primary energy consumption,
thousand terrawatt hours
Natural gas
Crude oil
Coal
Share of primary energy demand by type of fuel, %
Renewables
and others¹
Oil
Gas
Coal
2035
2050
Lower energy intensity
Lower energy intensity as a result of a continuing shift from industrial to service economies in fast-growing countries such
as India and China
Increased energy efficiency as a result of technological improvements and behavioral changes
Rising electrification, which provides a more efficient way to meet energy needs in many applications
Growing renewables, which flattens the energy demand curve
The decoupling of GDP and energy growth:
A CEO guide
The decoupling of GDP and energy growth:
A CEO guide
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
Dive deeper
A retailer becomes an energy producer—eg, installing solar panels on store roofs.
An OEM becomes a service provider—as transport as a service eclipses car ownership.
Producers of fossil fuels move into new energy types or invest in storage solutions.
New forms of competition emerge—eg, energy systems become giant network economies.
Consumer preferences shift increasingly to green products
and circular solutions.
Value chains transform—eg, utilities operate and maintain their own wind turbines instead of outsourcing
to OEMs.
Climate-change mandates affect energy costs and alter the balance sheet of carbon-intense sectors.
Bans—eg, on plastics or diesel—constrain business operations.
Performance standards—eg, forced efficiency improvements for cars or appliances—accelerate adoption of next-generation technologies.
Transformation of businesses
New market dynamics
Government policy and regulation
For example:
The decoupling of GDP and energy growth:
A CEO guide
The decoupling of GDP and energy growth:
A CEO guide
Article – McKinsey Quarterly
Dive deeper
Transformation of businesses
New market dynamics
Government policy and regulation
Existing coal
Existing gas
Including biomass, hydro, and nuclear.
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