Land competition in some African countries puts pressure on forests for cropland, which could be managed instead through degraded land conversion.
McKinsey & Company
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Potential cropland areas
Potential land uses¹ by 2030
Area breakdown by cover and suitability,
%
Pastureland
Natural land
28 million hectares (Mha)
61 Mha
99
94
6
1
Suitable for 1–2 crops
Suitable for 3–5 crops
Protected areas (including primary forests)²
Potential for natural-land conversion to cropland
Historical armed conflict location³
Potential for pasture conversion to cropland⁴
Managed and secondary forests
Forested areas
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6 Mha
of secondary and managed forests are at risk of conversion in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia. Action is required to preserve these forests, in addition to primary forest areas that are already protected.
of land likely to be converted by 2030 from pastureland and natural land is also likely to be suitable for 3 or more crops (maize, wheat, rice, oil palm, millet, sorghum, or cassava).
> 95%
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Potential cropland areas
Forested areas
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Potential cropland areas
Forested areas
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Potential cropland areas
Forested areas
¹Estimated from the product of past conversion to crops and probability of conversion coming from a land-use-specific random forest model. This is not
to beinterpreted as a recommendation for land-use change. Analysis not conducted for some North African countries including Algeria, Libya, Egypt
and Morocco.
²Map does not show the potential protected areas based on IBAT Key Biodiversity Areas that could be protected for each country to achieve 30% of protectedareas of their surface by 2030. However, McKinsey’s Transition Scenarios in Agriculture and Land Use Sectors (TRAILS) model protects
14–30% of these areas,depending on the scenario.
³Based on the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, 1946–22.
⁴Some of these areas can be defined as hot spots, which are areas with more than 30% probability of future change in land use when considering the upperquartile of intensity of historical change within a 10-kilometer radius.
Source: McKinsey ACRE
Preliminary insight
the total need for cropland
in sub-Saharan Africa (20–30 Mha) by 2030 could be met through pastureland and natural-land conversion.
2×
Preliminary insight