McKinsey & Company
Deploying change levers within seven decarbonization themes could enable direct emissions reductions or catalyze reductions in value chain systems.
¹For further discussion of potential actions and roles for value chain stakeholders, see chapter 4 of this report.
²The amount of land needed could be significantly reduced if rotational grazing were adopted rather than an extensive unmodified pasture system. The acreage needed would depend on the number of cows per acre the rotational grazing system could support.
³Polyethylene terephthalate.
⁴Approximation based on Environmental Protection Agency estimate that the median cost of food waste across all food categories is $1.17 per lb; average greenhouse gas emissions per ton of beef (2,000 lbs) = 40 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent.
Source: Candace Adams, “How many acres do you need per cow when raising cattle?,” Herdx, accessed May 30, 2024; Rory Clune, Viktor Hanzlík, and Raffael Winter, “Power,” McKinsey Quarterly, August 1, 2022; Columbia Climate School; Environmental Protection Agency; European Environment Agency; Fashion on climate: How the fashion industry can urgently act to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, a joint report from McKinsey and Global Fashion Agenda, 2020; Rachael D. Garrett and Matthew N. Hayek, “Nationwide shift to grass-fed beef requires larger cattle population,” Environmental Research Letters, July 2018, Volume 13, Number 8; Good Food Institute; Industrial-innovation.com; Joshua Katz and Peter Mannion, “Food and agriculture,” McKinsey, August 1, 2022; Russell Knight, “Sector at a glance,” USDA Economic Research Service, updated August 30, 2023; Timo Möller and Patrick Schaufuss, “Road mobility,” McKinsey, August 1, 2022; Project Drawdown; “Reducing agriculture emissions through improved farming practices,” McKinsey, May 6, 2020; “Renewable energy in India,” Invest India, accessed May 29, 2024; G. R. Sinha and Silvia Liberata Ullo, “Advances in smart environment monitoring systems using IoT and sensors,” Sensors, 2020, Volume 20, Number 11; “The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring,” McKinsey Global Institute, January 2022; “There’s room for improvement in a popular climate-smart agricultural practice, Stanford-led study shows,” Stanford Report, November 8, 2022; US Government Accountability Office; Bridget Vandenbosch, “Unlocking the circular economy’s potential with a data-driven approach to recycling,” Recycling Today, July 26, 2023; Steven Wallander and Christine Whitt, “Study examines how and where U.S. cow-calf operations use rotational grazing,” USDA Economic Research Service, November 21, 2022; World Business Council for Sustainable Development; World Economic Forum; McKinsey analysis
Economic resources: $150 per metric ton of CO₂ abated to electrify a meat plant outputting ~5 billion pounds of beef annually
Natural or physical resources: ~2× the current power generation capacity from renewables in the next few decades to fully clean grid and to support potential mill-decarbonization targets where most textile mills are located
Human resources: Skilled workforce to fill 33 million projected job gains as power generation may roughly double by 2050
Low-carbon technology: A 4–7× increase in adoption of advanced technologies such as wind and solar to support manufacturing hubs
Data transparency: Use of big data analytics, AI, machine learning, and digital technology in the energy, materials, and mobility sectors to potentially reduce global emissions 20% by 2050
Transitioning to clean and renewable energy
Transitioning to clean and
renewable energy
Reducing farming
emissions from livestock
management
Adopting regenerative
practices in plant-based
agricultural inputs
Increasing circularity of
products and packaging
Reducing waste and
increasing process
efficiency
Reducing emissions in
transportation
Transitioning from animal
protein to plant protein
products
Transitioning to clean and
renewable energy
Reducing farming
emissions from livestock
management
Adopting regenerative
practices in plant-based
agricultural inputs
Increasing circularity of
products and packaging
Reducing waste and
increasing process
efficiency
Reducing emissions in
transportation
Transitioning from animal
protein to plant protein
products
Economic resources: $85,000 to $170,000 total investment, at a rate of $401 per metric ton of CO₂ abated, for a US beef cattle rancher with 50–100 cattle and 120–240 acres to reduce farming emissions from livestock management using current technology
Natural or physical resources: 3× more land and 30% more cattle for an extensive, unmodified grass-fed pasture system vs a feedlot system to produce the same amount of beef annually²
Human resources: Training and skill development in areas such as efficiency breeding, adaptive grazing, and precision technologies to fill the projected 27 million jobs gained by 2050
Low-carbon technology: 4–7× higher adoption of farming technologies such as selective breeding, fat supplements in feed mix, red algae, systems for monitoring animal health, and adaptive grazing to contribute to a 20% reduction in total emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use
Data transparency: A system for sharing tools, complete and reliable data, and reporting structures transparently among retail value chain stakeholders
Reducing farming emissions from livestock management
Economic resources: Potential savings of ~$180 per metric ton of CO₂ abated for a cotton grower in Asia with 1.5 hectares of land and an annual production of 445 kg of lint per hectare
Natural or physical resources: 1.035–1.055× more land than used in conventional agriculture to compensate for a potential 3.5–5.5% yield loss during the initial 3- to 5- year transition period to regenerative agriculture depending on crop, soil, and geographic context
Human resources: Technical expertise in adopting precision farming, including use of variable-rate fertilization, predictive modeling, sensors, and GPS technology
Low-carbon technology: Increase in global adoption of silvopastures by 2050 to 720.55 million– 772.25 million hectares from ~550.0 million hectares
Data transparency: Primary data to reduce the limitations imposed by applying generic data in tracking progress on regenerative agricultural practices
Adopting regenerative practices in plant-based agricultural inputs
Economic resources: ~$201 per metric ton of CO₂ abated to use recycled cotton fibers, recycled PET,³ and recycled cardboard in packaging in apparel manufacturing
Natural or physical resources: 122% increase in capacity for plastic packaging recycling for the EU to hit its 2030 target of recycling 55% plastic packaging
Human resources: 1 in 5 garments traded via a circular business model to align with a 1.5° pathway by 2030
Low-carbon technology: 100% adoption of developing technologies such as recycled PET³ and 4–7× higher adoption of recycled cardboard in packaging to reduce value chain emissions 5%–15% by 2030
Data transparency: Granular and accurate data for tracking the flow of materials and resources throughout their life cycles to support and enhance recycling and circularity
Increasing circularity of products and packaging
Economic resources: ~$59 per metric ton of CO₂ abated to reduce food waste in the beef supply chain by 15%–20%⁴
Natural or physical resources: 72%–73% increase in EU recycling rate, enabled by increases in capacity and technology to reduce pre- and postconsumer waste, to meet the EU’s 2030 residual-waste target
Human resources: 40% improvement in waste collection by 2030 via training and incentives for garment factory employees
Low-carbon technology: Adoption of precision-agriculture technologies to improve production efficiency via precise application of inputs, alongside investments in education, R&D, and funding to promote low-carbon technology adoption
Data transparency: End-to-end traceability on sources of waste generated along the value chain (enabled by access to granular data) to pinpoint opportunities to reduce waste
Reducing waste and increasing process efficiency
Economic resources: $111 per metric ton of CO₂ abated to electrify transport in the beef, electronics, and apparel value chains
Natural or physical resources: 384 new mines to supply rare earth elements for electric-vehicle (EV) batteries
Human resources: Upskilling and training to ensure the number of drivers, operators, and others is adequate to deploy and maintain EVs at scale, ie, the skilled workforce to fill 9 million projected job gains in EV manufacturing and the mobility ecosystem (eg, smart charging) by 2050
Low-carbon technology: 15,000 public and semiprivate EV chargers installed in Europe each week by 2030 to meet demand created by achieving the net-zero goal of EVs making up 75% of global passenger-vehicle sales
Data transparency: Use of digital technologies such as the Internet of Things, imaging, the cloud, geolocation, and AI to gather and analyze real-time data to improve decision making and route optimization to reduce global emissions by 5% by 2050
Reducing emissions in transportation
Economic resources: $30 billion to $55 billion in 2030 and $250 billion to $300 billion in 2050 in capital investment in alternative proteins (including plant-based, fermentation, and cultivated), with ranges based on achieving a 2°C pathway and a 1.5°C pathway and abating up to 7 metric gigatons of CO₂ equivalent
Natural or physical resources: At least 810 factories with an average annual production of 30,000 metric tons to support scaling of plant-based protein production to achieve 2030 production targets
Human resources: 10–15× increase in current consumer adoption rate for plant-based proteins by 2030 to remain on a 1.5° pathway
Low-carbon technology: Investment in new breeding technologies to develop next-gen plant-based protein product traits
Data transparency: Public, open-access databases to provide farmers with information on the characteristics and functions of various plants to optimize the availability of desirable crops for plant-based protein products
Transitioning from animal protein to plant protein products
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹
Key examples of levers by enablers of emissions reduction¹