McKinsey & Company
More than one million workers in the New York CSA may need to shift occupations by 2030—a third due to the impact of generative AI.
Occupational transitions by category, New York combined statistical area (NY CSA)
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Occupational category
Estimated occupational transitions, 2022–30,
thousand
Transitions as share of 2022
employment,
%
Office support
Employment, 2022,
million people employed
Customer service and sales
Food services
Production work
Business and legal professionals
Educator and workforce training
Property maintenance
Managers
Community services
Mechanical installation and repair
Builders
Transportation services
Creatives and arts management
Health aides, technicians, and wellness
STEM professionals
Health professionals
Agriculture
NY CSA
Note: Under midpoint automation scenario with generative AI acceleration.
Source: Current Population Survey, US Census Bureau; O*NET; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
26
20
11
13
6
5
7
3
4
4
4
4
4
1
1
0
4
9
1.6
1.0
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.2
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.6
0.5
0.0
12.3
421.6
196.9
95.2
88.6
80.3
58.0
27.6
25.7
23.4
18.7
15.1
13.8
11.7
5.9
4.3
2.2
1.7
1,090.7