McKinsey & Company
Seven demand drivers have the potential to affect 2040 global volumes.
Potential impact on 2040 nutrient volumes, %
Select a driver to see the impact
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs
Rising regulation in agriculture
Increasing application rates in Africa
Declining application rates in China and India
Increasing soil degradation
Shifting land use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nitrogen
Diphosphorus pentoxide (P2O5)
Potassium oxide (K2O)
Today, 20–30% of farmers globally have adopted precision agriculture hardware, and an additional 5% anticipate adopting it in the next 2 years.
Source: McKinsey Global Farmer Survey, 2024
Up to 95
Up to 95
Up to 95
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs
Rising regulation in agriculture
Rising regulation in agriculture
Increasing application rates in Africa
Increasing application rates in Africa
Declining application rates in China and India
Declining application rates in China and India
Increasing soil degradation
Increasing soil degradation
Shifting land use
Shifting land use
Approximately 20% of farmers globally have already adopted biostimulants, and an additional 6% anticipate adopting them in the next 2 years.
Source: McKinsey Global Farmer Survey, 2024
Agriculture contributes approximately 15% to global emissions, with N fertilizers alone accounting for approximately 3% of this total due to manufacturing and on-farm emissions.
Source: The net-zero transition: What it could cost, what it could bring, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2022
Today, the average combined application rate across N, P, and K nutrients in Africa (Morocco and South Africa) is about 120 kg per hectare, compared with about 135 kg per hectare globally.
Compared with the world average, China and India’s application rates are about 30 kg per hectare higher for N and P and about 10 kg per hectare higher for K.
There is debate about the potential impact of soil degradation: it could either require more fertilizer to offset declining soil health, or it could reduce yields such that applying more fertilizer is unprofitable.
As global demand for food, livestock, and fuel grows, and as rising global temperatures shift global weather patterns, land use is expected to shift, causing a projected decline in overall fertilizer volumes.
2040 estimated volumes (100%)
Source: FAOSTAT; International Fertilizer Association (IFA); McKinsey Nutrient Demand Model
Source: McKinsey Nutrient Demand Model
Source: McKinsey analysis
Source: “Striking the balance: Catalyzing a sustainable land-use transition,” McKinsey, November 7, 2023
Up to 95
Up to 95
Up to 95
100–105
100–105
100–105
Up to 95
Up to 95
Up to 95
90–95
90–95
100
90–95
90–95
90–95
90–110
90–110
90–110