Investments in the energy sector grow by +35-120% until 2040 but stay in line with historical shares of GDP.
CAGR,
’21–’40
Projections per scenario:
Global investments in the energy sector¹
annual,² $ billion
McKinsey & Company
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2040
2035
2030
2025
2015
Source: IEA World Energy Investments 2023; IRENA World Energy Transition Outlook 2023; McKinsey Energy Solutions' Global Energy Perspective 2023; McKinsey Energy Solutions Energy & Pricing Value Pools 2023; McKinsey Global Institute
Note: Overall power is overrepresented given that T&D is included, while for conventional fuels, O&G midstream and coal upstream are not included.
Historical values are based on IEA data, with the exception of decarbonization technologies values which are based on IRENA data until 2020. 2021 is based on McKinsey data.
⁶
Includes upstream and selected parts of midstream and downstream (ie, power T&D, EVCI, CCS capture, compression, transport, and storage).
⁵
Includes hardware and labor, ie T-circuit, D-circuit and T&D transformers new build-out (excluding upgrades of existing stock).
⁴
Includes sustainable fuels production, hydrogen production, CCS, EVCI, and district heating.
³
Includes power generation from solar PV, onshore wind, offshore wind, hydro, storage (including batteries), and other.
²
Includes power generation from coal, gas, nuclear, and oil (including plants with CCS technologies).
¹
(3)—(1)%
(2)—(1)%
0–3%
1–4%
6–11%
4–7%
2–4%
Oil
Gas
Power conventional⁶
Power renewables⁵
Decarbonization technologies⁴
Power T&D³
Achieved Commitments
Further Acceleration
Current Trajectory
Fading Momentum
Fading Momentum
Current Trajectory
Further Acceleration
Achieved Commitments
1,600
1,450
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,350
1,450
1,950
1,800
1,900
1,950
2%
4%
6%
0%
0%
0%
–1%
2,050
2,050
2,250
2,500
3%
5%
9%
2%
1%
–1%
–2%
2,100
2,300
2,700
3,100
4%
7%
10%
3%
3%
–1%
–2%
2,200
2,600
3,100
3,200
4%
8%
11%
3%
2%
–2%
–3%