Even if all countries deliver on their current net-zero commitments, global emissions remain far away from a 1.5° Pathway.
Current Trajectory
2.4ºC
Temperature rise
Pathway
Current trajectory of renewables cost decline continues, however currently active policies remain insufficient to close gap to ambition
(1.9º–2.9º)
Further Acceleration
1.9ºC
Temperature rise
Pathway
Further acceleration of transition driven by technology and regulatory evolution, though financial and technical constraints remain
(1.6º–2.4º)
Achieved Commitments
1.7ºC
Temperature rise
Pathway
Net-zero commitments achieved by leading countries through purposeful policies; followers transition at slower pace
(1.4º–2.1º)
1.5° Pathway
<1.5ºC
Temperature rise
Pathway
Aggressive regulatory constraints, that are enough to keep global warming likely² below 1.5˚C, results in the rapid adoption of decarbonization technologies across all sectors
Global net energy-related CO₂ emissions,¹ GtCO₂ p.a.
Anticipated rise in global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) by 2100 from 1990 levels expressed as median, including the probability range of 17th–83rd percentile. Analysis based on MAGICC v7.5.3, assuming continued decline post 2050, but no net-negative emissions.
¹
McKinsey & Company
With probability of 67%.
²