Confronting climate risk

Global problem, local impact

in India, the probability of anyone experiencing a lethal heat wave is effectively 0 today, but by 2030, 160 million to 200 million people could be at risk as of 2017, heat-exposed work in India produced ~50% of GDP, drove ~30% of GDP growth, and employed ~75% of the labor force by 2050, some parts of India may be under such intense heat and humidity duress that working outside would be unsafe for ~30% of annual daylight hours adaptation measures for India could include providing early-warning systems, building cooling shelters, shifting work hours for outdoor laborers, and accelerating the shift to service-sector employment

Will it get too hot to work in India?

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rising sea levels, increased tidal flooding, and more severe storm surges from hurricanes are likely to threaten Florida’s vulnerable coastline in 2050, a once-in-100-years hurricane might cause $75 billion worth of damage to Florida real estate, up from $35 billion today in Florida, prices of exposed homes could drop, mortgage rates could rise, more homeowners may strategically choose to default, and property-tax revenue could drop 15–30% in directly affected countries adaptation measures in Florida could include improving the resilience of existing structures, installing new green infrastructure, and building seawalls

Will mortgages and markets stay afloat in Florida?

a once-in-100-years hurricane in the western Pacific, which will be 4x more likely by 2040, could shut down the semiconductor supply chain supply chains are optimized for efficiency, not resilience, so production could halt for months; unprepared downstream players could see revenue dip 35% in 1 year protecting semiconductor plants against hazards could add 2% to building costs increasing inventory to provide a meaningful buffer could be cost-effective

Can supply chains weather climate change?

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increased flooding and severe storm surges threaten to cause physical damage to coastal cities, while knock-on effects would hamper economic activity even more ports, low-lying train stations, and underground metros could be at risk, as could factories close to the coast in Bristol, England, a once-in- 200-years flood in 2065 could cause ≤$3 billion in damage; in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, a once- in-100-years flood in 2050 could wreak ~$10 billion in damage it would take up to $500 million for Bristol to protect itself now from that scenario; Ho Chi Minh City might need seawalls, which could be very costly

Can coastal cities turn the tide on rising flood risk?

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Case studies based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario

Increasing risk:

Degree of exposure:

Effect on labor productivity:

Adaptation:

Increasing risk:

Physical damage to real estate:

Knock-on effects:

Adaptation:

Increasing risk:

Potential damage:

Upstream mitigation:

Downstream mitigation:

Increasing risk:

Infrastructure threats:

Total damage:

Adaptation: