Global problem, local impact
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in India, the probability of anyone experiencing a lethal heat wave is effectively 0 today, but by 2030, 160 million to 200 million people could be at risk
as of 2017, heat-exposed work in India produced ~50% of GDP, drove ~30% of GDP growth, and employed ~75% of
the labor force
by 2050, some parts of India may be under such intense heat and humidity duress that working outside would be unsafe for ~30% of annual daylight hours
adaptation measures for India could include providing early-warning systems, building cooling shelters, shifting work hours for outdoor laborers, and accelerating the shift to service-sector employment
Will it get too hot to work in India?
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rising sea levels, increased tidal flooding, and more severe storm surges from hurricanes are likely to threaten Florida’s vulnerable coastline
in 2050,
a once-in-100-years hurricane might cause
$75 billion worth of damage to Florida real
estate, up from $35 billion today
in Florida, prices of exposed homes could drop, mortgage rates could rise, more homeowners may strategically choose to default, and property-tax revenue could drop 15–30% in directly affected countries
adaptation measures in Florida could include improving the resilience of existing structures, installing new green infrastructure,
and building seawalls
Will mortgages and markets stay afloat in Florida?
a once-in-100-years hurricane
in the western Pacific, which will be 4x more
likely by 2040, could shut down the semiconductor supply chain
supply chains are optimized for efficiency, not resilience, so production could halt for months; unprepared downstream players could see revenue dip 35% in 1 year
protecting semiconductor plants against hazards could add 2% to building costs
increasing
inventory to provide a meaningful buffer could
be cost-effective
Can supply chains weather climate change?
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increased flooding and severe storm surges threaten to cause physical damage to coastal cities, while knock-on effects would hamper economic activity even more
ports, low-lying train stations, and underground metros could be at risk, as could factories close to the coast
in Bristol, England, a once-in-
200-years flood in 2065 could cause ≤$3 billion
in damage; in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, a once-
in-100-years flood in 2050 could wreak ~$10 billion in damage
it would take up to $500 million for Bristol to protect itself now from that scenario;
Ho Chi Minh City might need seawalls, which could be very costly
Can coastal cities turn the tide on rising
flood risk?
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Case studies based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario
Increasing risk:
Degree of exposure:
Effect on labor productivity:
Adaptation:
Increasing risk:
Physical damage to real estate:
Knock-on effects:
Adaptation:
Increasing risk:
Potential damage:
Upstream mitigation:
Downstream mitigation:
Increasing risk:
Infrastructure threats:
Total damage:
Adaptation: